The National Resistance Movement (NRM) appears set for a stronger presence in urban constituencies ahead of the 2026–2031 parliamentary term, with recent election outcomes and political analysis suggesting the ruling party is making gradual inroads into areas previously dominated by the opposition.
Political observers note that while the 12th Parliament remains largely dominated by NRM with more than 334 Members of Parliament, the party’s renewed performance in Buganda and major urban centres signals a shift that could reshape the country’s political balance if opposition groups fail to strengthen cohesion.
In Kampala, traditionally considered an opposition stronghold, the victory of NRM’s Hajjat Minsa Kabanda in Kampala Central against National Unity Platform (NUP) Secretary General Lewis Rubongoya was widely viewed as a significant political statement.
NRM also registered another key win in Kawempe South where Madinah Nsereko Ntale was declared winner, while in Nakawa East former Attorney General Fred Ruhindi secured victory against a NUP contender.
Despite these gains, several Kampala constituencies remained under NUP control. Ali Kasirye Nganda retained Makindye East, Mala Zahara Luyirika won Makindye West, Abubaker Kawalya secured Lubaga North, Eugenia Nassolo took Lubaga South, Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola won Kawempe North, while Joel Ssenyonyi retained Nakawa West. The Kampala Woman MP seat also remained with Shamim Malende.
Analysts argue that the NRM’s ability to win seats within Kampala demonstrates a growing penetration into opposition territory, a development that could influence future electoral outcomes.
Similar trends were observed in Wakiso District where Apio Kananura won Busiro South on the NRM ticket, while Shaka Bashaija captured Entebbe Municipality from the opposition.
In Kira Municipality, George Musisi of NUP defeated incumbent Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda of the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF). However, analysts attribute part of Musisi’s victory to the influence of NRM-leaning candidate Daniel Kananura, whose campaign reportedly split votes among opposition supporters.
Observers say the emerging competition in urban constituencies reflects a more contested political landscape, with both the ruling party and opposition expected to intensify mobilisation ahead of the next election cycle.
The developments suggest that while opposition parties remain dominant in many urban areas, NRM’s renewed push into these constituencies could signal a changing political dynamic in Uganda’s major towns and cities.
